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	<title>Comments on: Hindsight Bias</title>
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	<link>http://www.killtenrats.com/2007/09/10/hindsight-bias/</link>
	<description>a group of adventurers on an epic quest</description>
	<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 06:19:49 +0000</pubDate>
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		<item>
		<title>By: Zubon</title>
		<link>http://www.killtenrats.com/2007/09/10/hindsight-bias/#comment-24777</link>
		<dc:creator>Zubon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Nov 2007 11:33:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.killtenrats.com/?p=1214#comment-24777</guid>
		<description>Yes, the morning spam cleaning.  It's dead now.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, the morning spam cleaning.  It&#8217;s dead now.</p>
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		<title>By: Jezebeau</title>
		<link>http://www.killtenrats.com/2007/09/10/hindsight-bias/#comment-24774</link>
		<dc:creator>Jezebeau</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Nov 2007 05:46:50 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Woo!  Omnispam!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Woo!  Omnispam!</p>
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		<title>By: yunk</title>
		<link>http://www.killtenrats.com/2007/09/10/hindsight-bias/#comment-24080</link>
		<dc:creator>yunk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Sep 2007 15:21:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.killtenrats.com/?p=1214#comment-24080</guid>
		<description>A headline in the Chicago Tribune today reads "Census data shows high birth rates fuel Latino growth"  Populations grow when people have babies? That's crazy talk.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A headline in the Chicago Tribune today reads &#8220;Census data shows high birth rates fuel Latino growth&#8221;  Populations grow when people have babies? That&#8217;s crazy talk.</p>
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		<title>By: Nicodemus</title>
		<link>http://www.killtenrats.com/2007/09/10/hindsight-bias/#comment-24048</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicodemus</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Sep 2007 05:24:53 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>speaking of stating the obvious... gotta love it: 
http://www.killtenrats.com/?p=774</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>speaking of stating the obvious&#8230; gotta love it:<br />
<a href="http://www.killtenrats.com/?p=774" rel="nofollow">http://www.killtenrats.com/?p=774</a></p>
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		<title>By: yunk</title>
		<link>http://www.killtenrats.com/2007/09/10/hindsight-bias/#comment-24038</link>
		<dc:creator>yunk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Sep 2007 16:35:25 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>It depends, does this email being circulated tell you to circulate it to 12 of your friends? "Jimmy didn't send this out, and the next day someone hacked into his account and a week later after he got the company to reset his password so he could log in, all his characters were naked and penniless!"

If so then I'd say it's accurate.

I never trust surveys. I always felt they're the worst way to gather information, with the best ways people don't even know they're being studied. Then you only have the bias of the observers to contend with.

The error of surveys is far more than people want us to believe. Not just in doing a poor job of picking respondents, but questions can be so leading you don't even realize it when you write the question, esp you don't see how it leads to the answer you want. So many studies of polling has shown so many errors. of course, those studies have biases too! oh no! :O

For instance I was reading about exit polls, and they showed that when young women were used to ask who you voted for, the results were overwhelmingly Democrat. Since everyone wants to impress the young cute girl how caring and good we are :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It depends, does this email being circulated tell you to circulate it to 12 of your friends? &#8220;Jimmy didn&#8217;t send this out, and the next day someone hacked into his account and a week later after he got the company to reset his password so he could log in, all his characters were naked and penniless!&#8221;</p>
<p>If so then I&#8217;d say it&#8217;s accurate.</p>
<p>I never trust surveys. I always felt they&#8217;re the worst way to gather information, with the best ways people don&#8217;t even know they&#8217;re being studied. Then you only have the bias of the observers to contend with.</p>
<p>The error of surveys is far more than people want us to believe. Not just in doing a poor job of picking respondents, but questions can be so leading you don&#8217;t even realize it when you write the question, esp you don&#8217;t see how it leads to the answer you want. So many studies of polling has shown so many errors. of course, those studies have biases too! oh no! :O</p>
<p>For instance I was reading about exit polls, and they showed that when young women were used to ask who you voted for, the results were overwhelmingly Democrat. Since everyone wants to impress the young cute girl how caring and good we are :)</p>
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		<title>By: Jeromai</title>
		<link>http://www.killtenrats.com/2007/09/10/hindsight-bias/#comment-24034</link>
		<dc:creator>Jeromai</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Sep 2007 14:08:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.killtenrats.com/?p=1214#comment-24034</guid>
		<description>Well, my own bias would lean more to the majority of time being spent alone.

Why? For one reason, I strongly suspect that there are just a lot more people soloing than grouping. And even if you're out to group constantly, there's still the wait time to get organized into a group and get anywhere to do anything.

Hence why most MMORPGs these days have busywork tasks and other such 'solo content' to keep people entertained while they're alone.

Still, I'd question the methodology of such research, even if it agrees with my bias.

Exactly how did they obtain these results? A survey? Are we talking about just asking people how long they spend in a group or solo? (People grossly misjudge how long an hour is, for one thing.)

And how representative is this group of six thousand? A random selection across scores of MMO titles, or whole flocks of players who know each other and who may have said, "Hey, this questionnaire at this website is the current cool thing to fill up? :)"</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, my own bias would lean more to the majority of time being spent alone.</p>
<p>Why? For one reason, I strongly suspect that there are just a lot more people soloing than grouping. And even if you&#8217;re out to group constantly, there&#8217;s still the wait time to get organized into a group and get anywhere to do anything.</p>
<p>Hence why most MMORPGs these days have busywork tasks and other such &#8217;solo content&#8217; to keep people entertained while they&#8217;re alone.</p>
<p>Still, I&#8217;d question the methodology of such research, even if it agrees with my bias.</p>
<p>Exactly how did they obtain these results? A survey? Are we talking about just asking people how long they spend in a group or solo? (People grossly misjudge how long an hour is, for one thing.)</p>
<p>And how representative is this group of six thousand? A random selection across scores of MMO titles, or whole flocks of players who know each other and who may have said, &#8220;Hey, this questionnaire at this website is the current cool thing to fill up? :)&#8221;</p>
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