It seems the Hall of Monuments craziness is affecting even people that did not really hit it off with Guild Wars. Somehow I made it to 35 points even though I am years of grind away from the ultimate Guild Wars title. I think I am going to try for 45 points, but it’s really all fun and games now. I like the 30 point title “Closer to the Stars” better than “Ghostly Hero” (35) and “Flameseeker” (40) anyway.
There are five prongs to the Hall of Monuments: gaming achievements, player armor, companion armor, weapons, and miniatures. The first four are all based on player activity. Need companion armor? Play some challenge missions. Need weapons? Grind out some precious stones or Krytan trophies. Need miniatures? Fill out the available character slots and wait a couple years.
Miniatures, like Hall of Monuments weapons, become bound to the player when they become dedicated to the Hall of Monuments. They are then obviously taken off the market with regard to the Hall of Monuments. Unlike weapons, the majority of miniatures cannot be ground out. There are a small handful that can be randomly dropped from things like the weekly Gifts of the Traveler (<0.1%) and Royal Gifts (~0.2-0.3%), a quest, or a magazine promo, but the majority of miniatures on the market are gained from a character’s birthday present.
Every year that a character persists, a birthday present appears in the character’s inventory. On the first birthday, the present will give 1 of 14 first-year minis. After two years, the present will give 1 of 14 second-year minis. And, so on up to five-year presents. So right now, barring the mere handful that can be ground out, a character can create 5 miniatures after 5 years of persistence. Yet, I would guess the percentage of characters that are five years old are relatively minor.
So let’s make up some math. If I assume that the average character age is 2.5 years and each account has 5 characters, then each “average” account has made roughly 13 miniatures. Then there is a pretty good chance that some of those miniatures will be duplicates. You can make up your own numbers, as I have, based on your own gut feelings, but with a whopping 50 unique miniatures needed to finish the Hall of Monuments “Devotion” trophy case, it will take multiple active accounts to feed one finished account. I believe it will take more than one account to hit the first tier of 20 unique miniatures.
Why is this important? Well, I see a lot of talk about how people are waiting for the market to break. With second-year common minis going for 10-15k each, I wish the demand would drop as well. I don’t think it will. Right now, miniatures are being sacrificed to the Hall of Monuments at likely the fastest rate ever. As people finish their 50, give up, or eventually move on to Guild Wars 2, that rate will slow. Yet, the supply is not going to magically bounce back. The surplus that people have been sitting on for 5 years will not magically replenish… except for once per character per year.
Therefore, I believe the demand is not going to drop at least until Guild Wars 2 releases. Then, I don’t think many people are going to come back to Guild Wars to sell their yearly miniatures. The best plan, in my humble opinion, is to get the black moa mini via the material gathering quest, get a Canthan New Year mini, and then get a birthday present. Then focus on getting Hall of Monuments points from places that can be controlled to get to 30 points. Good luck either way.