2012 Predictions

I will now get the highest score of any MMO pundit making predictions. Ready? “It will not go live in 2012.” Whatever we’re talking about, I’m predicting that it will slip into 2013, or later, or just never ship. The game, the expansion, whatever: not in 2012. I’m going to lose a few points, since something will ship in 2012, but I don’t see how anyone can beat my accuracy rate here.

: Zubon

10 thoughts on “2012 Predictions”

  1. That reminds me of a project that one of our more cerebral devs had an intern do one summer at a company I worked at… a while ago. He was working with what we called “natural language processing,” basically to route email to customer service agents with the most likely answer already attached.

    A summer of research and the intern did a presentation with many charts and graphs that proved that the fewer possible responses there were, the more likely an email was going to get routed to the right response.

    At which point I piped up, “And if there is only one possible response, it is right 100% of the time?”

    That got a frown from the intern and the dev as I asked it in a voice that strongly implied, “Well duh!”

    Having learned from that, I am going to take on your “It won’t ship in 2012,” which has two potential outcomes (will/won’t), with “It will ship after December 19, 2011,” which has only a single outcome, at least for any product that ships at all.

    1. In the universe of all possible products, I am clearly winning, and even for announced projects (all, including “to be announced”), I may still be ahead.

    1. NO! You take that back! It’s been OVER TWO YEARS since that first Guild Wars 2 teaser was first released August 2009 at Gamescom–2 years AFTER GW2 was first announced when ArenaNet cancelled future expansions of Guild Wars after GW:EN.

      — Ken from Chicago

      P.S. Besides it wold just break poor Rubi who had given up GW2 news, per Massively Speaking 178–just before ArenaNet released the cracken of GW2 news. And Shawn would be a frothing loony–especially since his fave profession, the Mesmer, has FINALLY been officially announced. As it is he began the first video Guildcast “Mesmer, mesmer mesmer mesmer.” He’d snap if his Mesmer, his precious got delayed to 2013.

  2. If GW2 got pushed into 2013 there would be hell to pay in their fanbase. GW followers are a rabid bunch and they really, really want to play 2 already.

    That being said, since they just pushed to closed beta last week, I would say they are well within the framework of “2012” Maybe they miss their “April 2012” target, but I doubt it.


    1. What did you say! We, rabid? ARE YOU KIDDING ME!

      No but in all seriousness, I’ve been waiting for Guild Wars 2 since 2007. If I haven’t somehow played the game within the next couple months I am going to lose it. So much anticipation it’s like drugs coursing through my veins.

      Please god, for once. Make it happen. Kthxbai

  3. As swtor is out since yesterday, that’s already one game that won’t ship in 2012 (to which you can add eve, minecraft and others).

  4. … and anything that ships late in the year will have been rushed out early and *shouldn’t* have shipped in 2012.

  5. I think it is a fair bet. Remember, 2012 will bring Windows 8 with all that entails including yet another DirectX release. Also, since xbox 720 may put in an appearance or at least be close enough to take into account, that must also be incorporated. Release soon or be pushed to 2013 by the relentless advance of technology is even money in my book.

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