Quote of the Day

The most succinct summation of my thoughts on the World of Warcraft player-gouging news:

Since people who actually form their own groups are likely to be the more social players anyway, Blizzard effectively will be going the opposite way from Valve and charging the people who most want and are able to build social networks for their friends.

–Spinks

To get up to speed in one corner Blizzard who wants to charge people to play with friends in different servers, and in the other corner Valve who wants to give more free-benefits to those that are more socially influential. N.B. players are also charged a subscription for accessing Blizzard’s servers; what extras that subscription is paying for any more, I am not sure.

–Ravious

Reflecting on Outcomes

We frequently pick what to do in-game based on the rewards available rather than on what would be most fun. Stumbling on Happiness suggests that this might not be a horrible idea in terms of remembered enjoyment.

The two things you remember most about an experience are the most extreme event and the last one. Take the biggest emotional peak or trough, take your last thoughts, and those will stick with you long after the details have faded. If the best part of a movie is the ending, you will likely remember it fondly, even if an inventory of the moments finds it lacking.

This suggests the game design wisdom of giving out candy at the end of every quest/dungeon. If the experience ends with your receiving a shiny, you will remember it more fondly. (This also argues against making looting take less time, because you want the player to dwell on that shiny moment at the end.) This is an evolutionarily powerful meme that designers do not even need to pursue intentionally; all things being equal, games that give out candy at the end of each unit will be more popular just because human brains place emotional weight on that.

This also suggests the game design folly of risking disappointment. When faced with a loot slot machine, human brains will tend to value the high of winning more than the expected value suggests, but you are still having quite a few people end the dungeon with disappointment. Maybe they will take the boss kill as “ending on a high note,” or they will be happy for the loot roll winner, but that loot roll at the end will not be a high note for most. This suggests the rise of tokenization as a strong meme, because everyone gets a unit of candy.

It should also suggest that the common model of wiping on bosses for days/weeks before passing them is a horrible design. Multiple tries in a night could still mean ending on a win (high note), but every night that ends in a wipe is a raid full of disappointed people, except for those who take solace in “we’re making good progress.” Perhaps this falls under the loot slot machine principle, whereby the occasional wins are valued more than the frequent losses.

: Zubon

[GW2] The LA Effect

ArenaNet released a double-whammy yesterday with an overview of the city of Lion’s Arch in Guild Wars 2 with a video and a developer post on the creation of the new Lion’s Arch. The city starting from Guild Wars has a rich history both in-game and out. Yet, ArenaNet is starting fresh with the a total re-envisioning of one of the most well known cities in Guild Wars. Will it become as powerful a hub of activity as its predecessor was in its own heyday?

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Living in the Sci Fi Future, Part VI

Google Lobbies Nevada To Allow Self-Driving Cars

The autonomous driving function has been tested on California freeways. I worked in traffic safety for years, and these cars are what I said were about the only way to reach the “0 fatality” vision/goal that so many of our sibling offices had. I keep citing Rainbows End as the clearest vision of our technological near-future, and Sebastian Thrun’s quote at the end is a feature of the book.

: Zubon

via MR

Stochastically Dominant

There has been much MMO blog chatter lately on optimization, “I just want to have fun,” what you owe your team/raid, exploring mechanics, etc. I wish to add 2.5 small postulates, upon which I hope we can agree.

If one option is better than another by a non-negligible margin in all cases or nearly so, it is a poor decision to choose the inferior option, and it is fair to criticize someone for doing so. This is true even if there are role-playing or decorative reasons for the choice. As an extreme example, it is perfectly valid to refuse to group with someone who is role-playing an ascetic mendicant who refuses to use equipment or someone who wants to raid in level 10 equipment because it looks nice.

A corollary is that if one option is clearly superior in the circumstance in question, one that is readily available and has no meaningful drawbacks, you are welcome to criticize someone for choosing the inferior option. Don’t be a jerk about it, but this guy is being a jerk by playing his class with only two buttons and not even the right two buttons.

The second postulate is that it is usually poor game design to have stochastically dominant options over non-idiotic ranges of comparison. If 1 2 1 3 1 4 really is the best damage rotation in 90+% of fights, you have reduced most of the game’s complexity to eight characters. If there is no point at which a Warrior should trade off Strength for Dexterity, even at a 10-to-1 ratio, your attribute system is not terribly interesting. These problems are doubly so if some aspect keeps the stochastic dominance from being apparent, such that someone might not notice the tiny DoT icons which tell you that you should never add numbers other than 1-4 to that rotation.

: Zubon

I have a friend who is a stochastic dominatrix.

Surrogating on Happiness

My latest reading on “what is wrong with the human brain” is Daniel Gilbert’s Stumbling on Happiness. The titular theme is that human beings are really bad at predicting what will make us happy. We imagine future events but leave out important details. You have the essence of the experience in mind but forget all the details that could mitigate it, leading us to over-estimate how good the good will be and how bad the bad will be.

The author’s recommended solution, which he does not expect most to take, is to use surrogates. On average, you will better predict how much you will enjoy X if I tell you how much some random person enjoyed X than if I tell you what X is. The odds are better that your brain will miss something important than that this random person is much different from you on an important variable. It is also known that the average person thinks he is different from average for most important variables, so this means you.

Apply this for a moment. You have been following that MMO’s development for years, listening to developers, getting all the details, and on that basis you will probably have a worse estimate of how much you will enjoy it than if you just tried to get a sense of how the playerbase feels as it launches, worse than if you just asked a random player/tester how much fun s/he had. If you consider the pre-game anticipation part of the fun, go to, but consider it a separate form of entertainment rather than useful information-gathering.

Of course, as an MMO player, you are in a niche market. You can improve your enjoyment estimates by narrowing the range of potential players over whom you are seeking a random or average estimate. But remember to stick to that principle or at least keep track of how often you get burned when you veer from it: if you usually like what Ravious likes, and Ravious says he likes/hates X, you can rationally make a buying decision based solely on that. I am happy to take movie recommendations from a few reviewers who I know to have similar tastes, and Roger Ebert will usually know before I do whether I will enjoy a film.

: Zubon

I grant that Bhagpuss is a unique snowflake whose preferences will differ on the important variables.

Spiral Situation: Wizard101 Test Realm: The good, the bad, and the ugly

The first thing that must be said about the April (now May) Test Realm for Wizard101 is that there is not a single ugly thing about it. There’s not even a single bad thing about it. It’s all good.

First and foremost, Wintertusk is breathtaking. The music of Wintertusk has received adulation from players of all ages – it’s the one feature that players have praised the most. The Wintertusk graphics and the battles also reach new levels of amazing.

There are new school (i.e., class) spell quests for toons level 35 and 58. As always, there is debate among players as to the usefulness of the spells that have been awarded. For example, Ice School players seem fond of the spell they can cast to reduced damage from the next spell of any class. However, they aren’t big fans of the so-called “upgraded ice armor” spell.

Players of each school will receive an additional school pet at level 58. As with the new spells, players debate over the choice of spell for each school. Many Storm school players wish their pet was a Leviathan instead of a Kraken (or a “stupid sneezing Kraken” as one of my Diviner friends calls it). However, they soon swarmed Doctor Purreau’s Hatchery to mix and match pets and see what neat-o hybrids might be obtained. A Death Phoenix? Yes please!

New gardening features have been added, primarily the addition of new seeds. New seeds are fun, because they present new challenges in terms of needs and likes, and drop new loot upon harvesting. The loot dropped from gardening might be low-level reagents which can be sold at the Bazaar, or it might be Mega-Snacks which otherwise can only be obtained through the cash shop.

The Test Realm also rolls out not one but two things that players have dearly wished for yet didn’t believe they would ever live to see. First off, wand stitching. This will enable players to take the stats from one wand (or sword, which is the other casting implement in Wizard101) to the appearance of another. So if you have a wand that looks kickin’ with your favorite battle duds, but it casts strikes that waste all of your best-laid class traps, you can have the best of both worlds once the Test Realm goes live by stitching it to an implement with wand strikes of a different school.

The second /swoon! addition currently being tested is the ability to set unequipped mounts free in your house or dorm room. The player community has been longing for this ever since mounts came out – we’ve wanted to see them float around our homes alongside our pets. Truthfully, I don’t think any of us thought KingsIsle would give in to this whimsical desire. But they have in spades. Bravo KingsIsle!

I haven’t covered every last feature currently in the Test Realm. There are new mounts, and the new spells for each school deserve careful review and dissection. When the Test Realm goes live, I’ll be sure to at least hit the highlights.

Wrath Reminiscences

A friend was telling me about playing WoW with her son. He did perfectly fine except for the reading parts, since he is only now 7 and English is not his first language. He was, however, capable of learning how to raid as a DPS character. When she needed to go to the bathroom during a raid, she would have him sit in for her. Nothing helps the guild leader reinforce that you are not doing a good job like having a 5-year-old on Ventrilo telling people to stop standing in the fire and not to shoot the sheeped mobs.

: Zubon

[GW2] Fan Interviews

ArenaNet, like any business, has their own marketing agenda where they have to figure out how to use their finite resources to get the biggest results. Obviously, PCGamer and Rock Paper Shotgun are among two media outlets that are going to hit a very large audience. Yet, it shows a lot on their part that they still take time to talk with smaller fansites like GuildMag, Variance, and our humble home. There is one thing about smaller fansites. They usually take as much time and care, if not more, into preparing for the interview as any true journalist site. Two recent interviews from our friends at Tap Repeatedly and Guild-Hall.cz definitely raise the bar for all future professional and fan interviews.

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[GW2] WvW – There Are Four Maps

In a nice interview over at Variance, ArenaNet starts dropping some pretty big information World vs. World (WvW)  combat.  WvW is actually three servers or shards pitted against each other for a set amount of time. Instead of arena-style PvP, WvW involves a big combat zone with multiple, linked objectives. For example, a supply caravan might be re-stocking a fortification. Players can either attack the fortification directly or cut off the supply chain. Winning sides garner benefits for their entire server. All this information has been known for some time. The interview brings to light an interesting twist: there are four maps.

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