Even without the use of super helpful tools like GW2 Spidy, I am beginning to see plenty of patterns in the market. There is quite a distinction in trade and volume for the weekend as MMO weekend warriors have heavy impact on the market. There is plenty of money to be made by flipping items, and it really does require just a couple of minutes a day.
The surprising market, for me at least, is the money that can be made on intermediate crafting components. Flipping raw materials is extremely difficult, and the final items seem to lose a lot of market value over their components. However, flipping the intermediate components like sword hilts or bow strings or sandal pieces is pretty profitable.
To be honest, I don’t understand it. Usually the buy price of the intermediate component is within coppers (+/-) of the base material cost, and the sell price is much higher than the base material cost. Yet, I keep making money. I guess between crafting guides and general laziness a lot of players don’t mind paying 50%+ more than crafting it from base materials.
There is also a lot of weirdness that can occur in intermediate component markets and other highly flippable markets. For instance, this morning I saw a player selling Mithril Chains about halfway between the buy orders and the wall of sell orders. I did a quick calculation and realized that where most of the sell orders stood I could make about 20-30 copper if I snatched up this middleman’s wares. I also had other Mithril Chains up in that wall of sell orders. These slash-priced Mithril Chains were just slowing things down!
More than likely the middleman in this scenario was a crafter looking to make a quicker buck for less profit on their own mithril ore. By actually sharing profits with people looking for flips, the middleman was able to move their product much faster. It’s an interesting tactic, but I don’t think it is a great one in the long run. Regardless these fluctuations and strategies are all part of the game.
The fluctuations that suck deal with bot bannings. Bots artificially lower the price of many commodities. It’s simply amazing how “off” they are from the fair price. The latest hit appears to be from tier 6 uncommon materials. Either some millionaire is really playing with everybody’s minds, or more likely, a bunch of bot farmers took a mass banning cutting off a supply chain that was keeping prices low.
The reason these suck is because it creates a lot of volatility, unforeseen consequences, let’s say. It’s much harder to predict the effect of bots from this side of things. Right now people working on high-end items, such as legendary weapons, are finding that their predicted costs are ballooning out of control. Others are finding that their stashes of tier 6 materials are becoming little nest eggs. Until the market corrects on tier 5 materials, it might be profitable to forge tier 5 materials in to tier 6 at the cost of skill points.
It’s interesting that the effect of bots can be seen so readily in Guild Wars 2 market. I wish the bot bannings did not have such an effect. Just more reason not to support black market gold selling because they do have such great effect.