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Hindsight Bias

“A recent survey of 6,407 players of ‘Massively Multiplayer Online Roleplaying Games’ (MMORPGs) such as World of Warcraft and Everquest found that 63% of hours in-game are spent in groups.” Well duh, thank you for discovering that playing online is a social activity. With all the raiding and forced grouping, and standing around waiting for the group to get its act together, it is surprising that the number was that low. Remember, one hour in a group of five means five hours grouped, so you need five solo players to balance that out, and a duo is still a group.

Wait, no, sorry, I wrote that backwards. “A recent survey of 6,407 players of ‘Massively Multiplayer Online Roleplaying Games’ (MMORPGs) such as World of Warcraft and Everquest found that 63% of hours in-game are spent alone.” Thank you captain obvious, of course we spend a lot of time soloing. All the new MMOs are more solo friendly, especially at the lower levels, and World of Warcraft is the biggest of them all. Sure, we hardcore people spend a lot of time raiding, but the teeming hordes of casual players will never see level 70 and will not be part of a raiding guild. With all the time we spend traveling, crafting, farming, or standing at the auction house, it is a wonder the number was that low.

Wait, sorry, my bad again, I made the whole thing up. What I read was a study of speed dating results, which was reported as “men like attractive women.” You were probably wondering about those loud cries of “Duh!” last week. A great deal of research is received this way because all possible results, even mutually exclusive ones, are taken as intuitively obvious. “A new study shows that absence makes the heart grow fonder”: duh! “A new study shows that out of sight really is out of mind”: duh!

Wait one last time, one of a set of mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive options must be true. People play more in groups, solo more, or the division is exactly even. Was the answer obvious after reading the first paragraph? The second? Now? If I told you that the 63% number was accurate and came from a working paper that is circulating via e-mail, could you tell me which version is correct?

: Zubon

The Great Value Inversion

Any other trade skill aficionados in the house? Between crafting and badges, I could go through entire games without killing things. I look at my time in A Tale in the Desert, and I wonder how much money I spent for the privilege of pretending to make charcoal. Good times.

Tuebit at WorldIV has some The Lord of the Rings Onlineâ„¢: Shadows of Angmarâ„¢-specific discussion of one of the great problems crafters face: raw materials are worth more than finished products. Go, read, see how gold ingots are worth 0.005 gold each; how treating raw wood (the only thing you can do with raw wood) makes it fall in value; and how you can reduce the value of your raw materials by 85%, simply by making a finished product. Now you know why you can carry huge stacks of metal ingots around: each is far far smaller than a gold piece.

People are paying to make progress in a profession that is so wholly un-enjoyable it is preferable to not play that profession, but rather, to grind cash and, in effect, purchase the profession.

Very strange.

: Zubon

Tabula Rasa NDA Lifted: 10/19/07 Launch

Tabula Rasa has lifted the veil of silence on their Beta testing population, so those of us who were not invited to the party will finally get a glimpse into this newest of MMOs. Officially set to launch on October 19th, Tabula Rasa offers gamers a blend of FPS and traditional MMO elements that attempts to break with the fantasy MMO genre and offer ‘something new.’

Continue reading Tabula Rasa NDA Lifted: 10/19/07 Launch

KTR Mythbusters: The Unpredictable PvP Player

It doesn’t exist. I’d almost go as far as to say it cannot exist.

Long being held as a staple of “what makes PvP interesting”, this player remains purely in the realm of the mythical. Of course there is evidence arguing for its existence, but it’s purely anecdotical and cannot be reproduced.

Tonight on KTR Mythbusters we examine the elusive Unpredictable PvP Player. Its humble beginnings as a post-slaughter campfire tale, its rise to legendary status and its ultimate demise at the hands of science.

Continue reading KTR Mythbusters: The Unpredictable PvP Player

Testy

Pvthudson would like you to test the game if you are a beta tester. Revolutionary concept, I know. I skip most betas for that reason: why provide free bug-testing for some company when you could pay to play someone’s live-but-should-still-be-in-beta MMO? Wait, that didn’t come out right…

I propose something in the opposite direction: developers, please tell your players what you want from this test. Pvthudson cites the mis-labeled stress test. If you are not seeking feedback on something, let us know that, since it does no one any good if you invite 20,000 people and they fill your forums with comments on balance. And frankly, it will just annoy everyone who feels like his feedback was ignored. On your test server, please do not describe the change as “increased fire damage”; your players cannot test if something is working as intended unless you tell them what is intended. Don’t be vague or coy here. You can even tell players, “This will be on test until we are sure of X, Y, and Z.”

If you want to harness the power of your playerbase, you should attach that harness to something.

: Zubon

Contemplations of a Demiurge

In the beginning, my Virtual Villagers were few. I watched them closely and took part in all their affairs. It was I who guided them to food and fire, and it was my hand that led them to open the waters once, twice, three times. When they begat, I chose the pairings and placed them together. They daily saw the architect of their lives.

Later, I allowed them more freedom. Once I was certain that they would not starve in my absence, I left them unattended to live their lives as they would. I would check in a few times a day, a few times a decade in their time, and lo the hand from the sky would again steer them. The lazy were sent to work, others’ careers changed in a moment, and many flew through the air to land where I wanted them to carry out my tasks. None could say where these tasks would lead, not even I, but the villagers were compelled to obey.

I stand outside their time and world. I can double their speed or freeze their time. With merely an adjustment to my computer’s clock, I can send their lives forward centuries, without their noticing any change in the flow of time. I cannot be in many places at once, but if I freeze their world and change many things, it looks to them as though the invisible hand is everywhere.

I mostly leave them to themselves now. In the early days I knew every name, every job. I celebrated the first Master Scientist and mourned the first death. Now I know them not. They breed in great numbers, and I do not gaze upon them for decades of their time. I do not recognize the names on the new graves being filled today. Now when I appear, I check a few metrics, I heal the sick, and I smile upon the frolicking children. They live in a tropical paradise with endless food and no enemies. I mostly ignore their world, but I do not delete it, and they do not notice that all the years of their lives pass in the instant of calculation when I restart their world from its stasis.

: Zubon