Kill Ten Rats

One of the more important economic principles that affects MMOs is called “network effects.” Network effects cause some goods to become more valuable as more people have them. The first fax machine, for example, cost a heck of a lot but had exactly zero value because no one else had one. To whom are you going to fax anything? The value you get from buying a fax machine is being able to interact with all those other fax machines out there.

In online games, the same effect applies to players. The more players there are, the more you can play with. Being the only person at an online poker site is pointless. Being on an underpopulated server means that you cannot get a full group going. Playing during off-hours means the same thing, as does playing a game where you don’t really speak the language.

Products with large network effects either have standardization that facilitates multiple entries or else tend towards market concentration on one winner. Did someone say WoW?

Continue reading Network Effects

Why is World of Warcraft The One? This has been a recurring theme in our little world of gaming blogs and discussion groups for quite a while. Answers have generally focused on what WoW supplies in terms of casual play, soloability, polish, simple but compelling graphics, popular intellectual property, attracting new market entry, network effects, humor, etc. I would like to focus on a demand side issue.

Median Voter Theorem is an important political concept explaining why we get the public policy that we do. I would like to briefly apply that to MMOs, explain why the model is wrong for a market with multiple games (rather than one government), and why it is right enough to produce WoW revenues on the order of $1,000,000,000/year. The short answer? It is what people want.

Continue reading Median Gamer Theorem

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No animals were harmed during the production of this blog (somehow). All models are over eighteen years of age.

: Zubon

Sometimes you meet interesting new people and have a great time, but quite often you end up on the ground declaring, “I swear to God, I will never do this again.” Until next week, when optimism and amnesia set in and you keep slamming your hand in that car door.

: Zubon

Terra Nova has a good discussion about in-game superstition and urban legends. When confronted by random behavior and rare events, people frequently make up explanations, some of which even sound plausible.

Funny thing is, occasionally they are true. Asheron’s Call really did have a Wi Flag based on character names. In the original A Tale in the Desert, wine flavors were based on the number of grapes that had been crushed in a barrel. In Kingdom of Loathing, you used to be able to change your odds of getting encounters by logging out and back in. Games have all sorts of oddities, which is why a seemingly harmless tweak can cause bugs throughout the game. You are in a non-linear feedback system where quasi-random systems can be based on arbitrary variables.

: Zubon

Many people quit at max level and walk away. I have seen much discussion about a lack of end game content, unwillingness to start the treadmill over, lack of direction without the treadmill, and a few others, but there is one explanation I have heard rarely if ever: people get sick of the treadmill well before 50, but tough it out to “finish the game” before they quit.

Before housecleaning, I would look at our CoH SG and see level 47-49 characters who just walked away one day. “How can you get that close,” I wondered, “and just let it go?” Then I remembered, wait, I did exactly the same thing in Dark Age of Camelot. I quit a few levels shy of the level cap, and I would not have gotten that far if my class were not in demand AFK/borrowed dual box (Earth Theurgist with bladeturn chant). It is easy to get sick of the level grind, and many people have quit in their minds but just want to “beat it,” to say that they did (to themselves, mostly).

For a variant perspective, consider studies in the timing of death. People really do hold on for that birthday, new year, grandson’s graduation, or change in inheritance laws (check Ig Nobel prizes for that last one; it actually is solid research). Yea, the soul-crushing agony of the level grind unto death.

: Zubon

Heroes is a really good show, and I’m not just saying that because I’m the huge nerd who blogs about City of Heroes here.

The surprise hit of the show is Masi Oka, Hiro on the show. In-character blogging is here. It’s not terribly cool, but Hiro is obviously one of our people.

: Zubon

One of the more amusing ways to create a disincentive for goldfarmers, bots, and other fun things that come with real money transfers is to have unrestricted PvP (or nearly so). In EVE Online, for example, there are channels devoted to hunting down gold sellers and AFK miners, and good luck getting involved in the actual game part if half the server has you on its hit list as an eBay twink. If someone can kill you and take your stuff, you are less likely to buy stuff.

In Asheron’s Call, there is the classic story of a Darktide (PvP server) character sold on eBay, advertised as having three Mattekar Robes (are those still worth anything?). Let’s call him Bob. Bob told his friends he was selling the character and where he last logged off. Not long after the sale, “Your friend Bob has logged on.” While new Bob was getting his bearings, old Bob’s friend was traveling through portal space. Old Bob’s friend liked his new robe. Old Bob’s friends also knew which lifestone Bob used. Rough start on the new server, new Bob.

If that story is just an urban legend, please don’t disillusion me.

: Zubon